Contact:
Economic Research,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,
101 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94105
Position:
Research Advisor, FRB SF, since August 2021
Senior Economist, FRB SF, April 2019 - July 2021
Economist, FRB SF, May 2015 - April 2019
Education:
Ph.D. in Economics, Stanford University, 2015
M.A. in Economics, University of Tokyo, 2009
B.A. in Economics, University of Tokyo, 2007
Publications:
The Effect of Aging on Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity
Journal of the Economics of Aging, 32, Dec 2025.
Special Issue on Economics of ageing: Japan in comparative perspective
Entry Costs Rise with Growth
Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, 3(1), Mar 2025.
A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents (online appendix)
Review of Economic Studies, 90(6), 2675–2702, Nov 2023.
The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output
The conference vol. of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Sep 2022.
Productivity Slowdown: Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance
The Economics of Creative Destruction, a Festschrift in Honor of Aghion-Howitt, Harvard University Press, Apr 2022.
Leverage and Productivity
Journal of Development Economics, Vol 154, Jan 2022.
BLP Estimation Using Laplace Transformation and Overlapping Simulation Draws (appendix)
Journal of Econometrics, 222 (1), Part A, 56-72, May 2021.
Innovative Growth Accounting (slides)
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2020.
Missing Growth from Creative Destruction (online appendix)
American Economic Review, 109(8), 2795–2822, Aug 2019.
Policy Error Bounds for Strongly Concave Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Non-interior Solutions
Computational Economics, 46(2), 171-187, Aug 2015.
Solving the Income Fluctuation Problem with Unbounded Reward
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 45, 353-365, Aug 2014.
Generalized Look-Ahead Methods for Computing Stationary Densities
Mathematics of Operations Research, 37(3), 489-500, Aug 2012.
Work in progress/Working papers:
Fallow working papers:
The Asymptotic Distribution of Estimators with Overlapping Simulation Draws
Submitted to Econometric Review
Short publications:
Productivity During and Since the Pandemic video summary
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2024-31.
Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation?
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2024-12.
Does Working from Home Boost Productivity Growth?
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2024-02.
Labor Productivity in a Pandemic
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021-22.
Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021-04.
Disruptions to Starting a Business during COVID-19
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020-25.
Innovative Growth Accounting
Vox EU, August 2020.
Is Rising Concentration Hampering Productivity Growth?
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019-28.
Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019-17.
Nonmanufacturing as an Engine of Growth
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019-03.
Missing Growth from Creative Destruction
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017-31.
Missing growth: How imputation and creative destruction affect TFP measurement
Vox EU, August 2017.
What’s Holding Back Business Formation?
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017-20.
How Does Business Dynamism Link to Productivity Growth?
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017-01.
Other professional activities:
* U.S. Census Bureau Special Sworn Status Researcher, since 2015
* Macro Finance Society member, since 2015
* Referee experience: Econometrica | Journal of Political Economy | Quarterly Journal of Economics | Review of Economic Studies | American Economic Review | AER Insights | AEJ Macro | JPE Macro | Journal of European Economic Association | Journal of Monetary Economics | Economic Journal | Journal of Financial Economics | Management Science | Journal of Development Economics | Journal of Economics Theory | Review of Economic Dynamics | Review of Economics and Statistics | European Economic Review | Journal of International Economics | Quantitative Economics | Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control | the B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics | Computational Economics | Economics Letters
Awards:
* 2021 Excellence in Refereeing Award, AER: Insights
* 2020 Excellence in Refereeing Award, AER: Insights
* 2014-15 Leonard W. Ely and Shirley R. Ely Graduate Student Fund Fellowship, SIEPR
* 2013-14 Dissertation Fellow, IRiSS Stanford
* 2013-14 Japan Fund Dissertation Fellowship, FSI
* 2012-13 Shultz Graduate Student Fellowship in Economic Policy, SIEPR
* 2012-13 Shorenstein Predoctoral Fellowship in Contemporary Asia
* 2009-10 Stanford Department Fellowship
* 2009 JSPS Research Fellowships for Young Scientists
* 2008 CEMANO-COE Distinguished TA Award for Core Graduate Macroeconomics II, The University of Tokyo
* 2007-09 Japanese Government Scholarship for Master Studies
* 2007 Presidential Award, The University of Tokyo
* 2002-06 Japanese Government Scholarship for Undergraduate Studies
